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The Long Tail and the independent scientist

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• Author: David Leahy
• June 29, 2008
• Category: Uncategorized

I guess most people have heard of the Long Tail, the idea that once the restraints of classical bricks and mortar businesses, particularly finite distribution and retailing space, are removed, then niche products (the ones that weren’t big enough to stock before) start to make a bigger contribution to sales. The obvious examples are on-line retailers and interestingly it seems that companies such as Amazon now make most of their income from the long tail of niche products, rather than blockbusters. They don’t sell as much of each, but there are a lot more of them. Like most big business ideas, the Long Tail takes things that are pretty obvious, but provides a useful model and good case studies and the book is a very enjoyable and thought-provoking read.The model is clearly applicable to information products, where the internet has essentially removed the physical restraints that stop the long tail forming, but would it work for other industries ? Well maybe in some respects since it seems that the most important element is lowering the costs of doing business, and this can also happen through greater automation or miniaturisation, but information and digital businesses seem to be where it is most easily recognised.

This got me thinking about the “Long Tail of Science” and what that might be. If we make the analogy that the products of science are raw data, filtered and summarised data, hypotheses, models, insight, publications as well as intellectual property and products and scientists are the producers, then what is the long tail and how is it changing?

“Big science” in large Universities and big companies are where we historically expect to get the blockbuster publications and products from, but that has already changed significantly with the emergence of more high quality research-intensive universities and smaller-sized companies filling the innovation gap. In drug discovery, my own area of interest, the big companies like AstraZeneca and GSK already fill the product pipeline with products invented by a smaller businesses and the rapid growth of research in India and China will accelerate that trend. Similarly the growth of research-intensive Universities doing good quality of research is starting to broaden the research “production line” out into a wider distribution, but I don’t think these are the real “long tail”. For me, the long tail in science are the individuals (and very small teams of 3-5 people), perhaps employed as academics, but outside the main research themes of their institution and increasingly the independent scientists operating on the internet through blogs and forums. Like the long tail in digital retailing, these micro-groups seek out a niche and stick to it, despite their audience being small. The quality is patchy, because there is no quality control and selection, but the market decides if they succeed. If they do succeed, as judged by page reads, then it usually because the have some experience and insight to share that people value. The science bloggers are an obvious example, although they are not generally “doing science”, rather they are reporting science that interests them and discussing results. More usually the science bloggers tend to focus on debating science-derived public policy. One example where the blogger does some of the process of science, particularly auditing of data and data analysis is Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit who applies his experience of data analysis in the mining industry to aspects of climate science. This is one of a number of fascinating examples of where independent scientists, outside the mainstream of funded research, can engage and contribute.  They have time, experience and financial independence to do what interests them and make a contribution. In some ways the Steve McIntyre’s of the world represent a return to the idea of the great independent scientists of the Enlightenment. Independently funded scientists working on their own addressing questions that interest them. Of course, they weren’t all good at it, and there is no reason to expect that the new long tail will also be uniformly insightful and logical, but that’s how it is.

I like the idea that a great pool of expertise and enthusiasm can be brought to engage with finding solutions.  Some of these will be in conventional research organisations, but in isolated niche areas. So independent in the sense that they can choose where to work and what to do. Increasingly though, they are genuinely independent of any organisation, but have enough income and time to do what they are interested in. For example, there are many experienced people taking early retirement. What are they going to do for 25 years, play golf all day? Given access to the right tools and data, I guess a fair proportion would want to do something useful and interesting. For the High Priests, those that have built their reputations in big science and who dominate their research field, these outsiders might seem like a nuisance. Who wants to have to defend their hard-earned reputation against a bunch of amateurs with no qualifications, who don’t have a published body of work in “proper” journals? However, if they stop and take a deep breath, they might see that these outsiders could have a great deal to offer them and their field.

It will be interesting to see how this develops and whether we will see the return of the amateur scientist and the creation of a productive long tail. Personally, I think it is very exciting thought that all kinds of people from anywhere in the world can engage in the process of science and is to be welcomed. The more we can remove barriers to this happening the better.

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